Our Services > Train Load Predictor™

Train Load Predictor™ provides an accurate prediction of passenger loadings for a given timetable to optimise service plan development and strategic investment decisions.

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The Challenge—Building an efficient service plan

Service plans and service levels drive operational and capital costs including infrastructure, stabling, rolling stock and driver related costs. The challenge for railway planners is to develop efficient service plans that effectively balance passenger demand with these costs.

Systemwide has developed a product called Train Load Predictor™ which uses forecasts of network patronage to accurately predict expected passenger trainloads for a given timetable.

Systemwide’s Solution—Train Load Predictor™

Train Load Predictor™ forecasts passenger loads using sophisticated mathematical techniques that model the individual decisions of patrons given variations in likely behaviour. Key features of Systemwide’s Train Load Predictor™ include:

• Apportions people to services through an individual decision function, commonly known as the rooftop model approach
• Considers service patterns and travel times to determine which train a passenger will catch
• Allows for different passenger behaviours based on the distance they travel to the city
• Recognition that some passengers will plan their journey based on the quickest train at the right time, whereas others simply arrive at the station
• Calibration against actual loadings data.

Train Load Predictor™ is also designed to interface with timetabling software such as Railsys (SIMU++) to provide a seamless flow from service plan development to loading prediction.

Systemwide’s Train Load Predictor™ enables railway planners to:

• Create service plans that optimise resources and avoid over and under crowding of trains
• Reliably and more effectively determine required train numbers
• Reduce rolling stock and driver requirements for a given level of demand
• Scientifically verify the efficiency and effectiveness of proposed timetables
• Avoid capital cost by better utilising the network while still satisfying demand.

Case Study

Systemwide utilised Train Load Predictor™ as a key analysis tool in the Rail Services & Infrastructure Requirements Study for TransLink, QLD Government Australia.